The horrible news of Grenfell Tower makes any talk about politics seem frivolous, although it’s clear that the disaster was itself a product of political failures, but I wanted to post a couple of my comments from MetaFilter on the ongoing self-inflicted disaster of Brexit before events overtake them. After taking a bad hit with the declaration of Article 50, my own personal reckoning of the chances of Brexit ever happening is being revised positively (as in, it won’t) with every passing day.
Time for an update on U.S. politics. Events are moving faster than any occasional-links-posting blog, so I’ve skipped the more ephemeral links and focussed here on some more lasting ones.
After waking to such hopeful news this morning of Tory losses, the awful realisation dawns that they will be governing with the support of a far-right party: if anything, a worse outcome than an outright Tory victory. “Sure, you can have your Dementia Tax and human rights restrictions, as long as we get to keep our homophobia and anti-abortionism.”
Maybe we’ll get a softer Brexit out of it, but who knows? The DUP heartland was the pro-Leave part of Northern Ireland.
Never have I been happier for my preemptive pessimism to be proven wrong.
Newcastle-under-Lyme was the scene of much drama yesterday when hundreds of newly-registered students were turned away at polling stations; they persisted and eventually got to vote later in the day, and Labour has won the seat by 30 votes.
The big story of this election has been the return of young voters, which is fantastic news. Now all the parties will have to start paying attention to them again. Seems that having your future stolen in an unnecessary referendum has a galvanising effect.
Even though a Tory minority government with DUP support seems the most likely outcome right now, the Tories have been directly responsible for putting the Good Friday agreement and therefore the future of Northern Ireland within the UK at risk, by calling the EU referendum and by doubling down on a hard Brexit. Even if the DUP are natural Tory allies, that must complicate the negotiations. Owen Jones wrote of the DUP in 2015: “The idea of these bigoted throwbacks to several centuries ago holding the balance of power should surely frighten even moderate Tories, let alone the rest of us.”
For anyone feeling confused about Scotland’s swing to the Tories: it was always unlikely that the SNP could hold its 2015 win of 97% of Scottish seats. Under first-past-the-post, the Tories can beat a divided anti-Tory vote, and so they have done in a dozen seats. But they’re still under-represented relative to their vote share in Scotland—and Labour even more so—just as they were in 2015. As disappointing as it is to think that Scotland’s Tory gains could help prop up a Conservative minority government, it isn’t some sort of Scottish betrayal of progressive Britain; the Scottish vote remains 70%+ anti-Tory.
I couldn’t vote this morning as I usually try to, and have had a vague dread all day of being hit by a bus before I can get to the polling station this evening.
Despite my bitterness over the line Jeremy Corbyn has taken over Brexit, and being convinced in the early weeks that we’re doomed, I’ve found myself caught up in hope borne out of recent opinion polls and my Twitter bubble that he, and the decent Labour policies he brings with him, might get over the line, or over enough of a line to form a minority government, or something, anything. Anything other than the bumbling, evasive, heartless, smug authoritarianism of Theresa May and her party, which promises to ramp the past seven years up into an exponential curve of awful.
But we’re probably doomed.
Here are some links I’ve been neglecting to post here in the interim.
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[ ] Right to life
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[ ] Freedom of expression
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[ ] No discrimination
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Now, everybody, I understand that not all of you want to chop off your legs, but the fact remains that 52% of the British people voted to chop off our legs, and although many of those were deceived by the Leg Amputation for Victory party, we in the Remain Standing party need to respect the result, even if it means chopping off our legs. So, as you know, I as leader instructed our MPs to support the government’s plan to go ahead and schedule the operation to chop off everyone’s legs, under threat of chopping off their party support, and we will be running in this election on a platform of strategic non-obstruction of the LeAVers’ plan for mass amputation.
As it happens, our own party once included chopping off everyone’s legs in our 1983 manifesto, and even if you may have found your legs intermittently useful in the 34 years since, especially those who were yourselves too young to walk in the 1980s, I think you’ll agree that it’s important to remain true to our original Remain Standing principles, especially when some of our more elderly members remain stuck in 1983. True, they may have no need for legs themselves, as many are now in wheelchairs, but they still have hands and can still fill in ballot papers. I myself am ambivalent about legs, which strike me as a prop to the middle class and its obsession with low-cost travel. I know that many of you are still attached to them, but trust me, on 30 March 2019 you won’t be.
Instead, I and our party will be focussing on the real issue in this campaign, which is the government’s outrageous track record of breaking poor people’s arms, and their plans to operate on our back doors via the back door.
So much for fixed-term parliaments. Under a first-past-the-post election with badly divided anti-Tory forces, it’s hard to see how we’ll end up with anything other than more Conservative MPs, a devastated Labour Party, and a supposed mandate for the toughest, hardest, reddest-whitest-and-bluest Brexit, which has to be why May called it three years early. That, and sidestepping some unwelcome by-elections.
The thought of a general election
Fills Remainers with abject dejection,
As Brexiteers glory
In thoughts of a Tory
Supremacy, free from correction.
It’s a while since I posted any Trump links—I was too busy collecting them. Here’s a couple of dozen that have lasted.
I still write a few limerick definitions from time to time. Last week I was inspired to write these. Can’t think why.
One of the incidental benefits of having written about politics here off and on for almost two decades is that I can see how many times I’ve used the words “fascist” or “fascism” in my public writing by searching a local backup of this site. Until 2016, one or the other had appeared only a few times, when quoting others: a political figure in Madagascar in 2002 talking about the supporters of his rival, and the poet Michael Rosen in 2015 (whose poem reads ominously today). It’s a word I’ve always used sparingly for fear of sapping its power.
I first used it here myself last year, when voicing fears in the days after the EU referendum of an apparently ascendant UKIP and the desire of many in England and Wales for a strong leader who would implement a hard Brexit. Those were fears of possible futures, but given how those particular events have unfolded I can’t say they’ve subsided much (UKIP is no longer ascendant, but only because the Tories have adopted their agenda). For Britain, though, they remain fears of a possible future. America has overtaken us.
My thoughts today are with friends in America, some of whom I’ve known since I was twelve, none of whom will have wanted this. I hope you get through it. I hope we all do.
Why limit the gloom to Britain, when it’s the last day of a sane American administration for who knows how long?
How kompromat works. Trump was bailed out of bankruptcy by Russian crime bosses. Trump’s longstanding mob connections. A message to the American media. Trump’s attack on a reporter’s disability versus reality.
Tales from the frontlines of viral photography. Trump’s ridiculous inauguration poem. I started to write a spoof of that, but rapidly lost the will to live. Instead, here’s Mark Hamill reading Trump’s tweets as the Joker.
Russia: the threat, the international order, and the way forward, by the outgoing US Ambassador to the UN. Comey refuses to discuss a possible Trump-Russia investigation because he only does that with Hillary Clinton.
Owen Jones and Nick Clegg discuss Brexit. Nationalism and Brexit. A full English Brexit is on the menu. Whether you’re leave or remain, Theresa May just betrayed you. We clearly don’t understand sovereignty. Brexiters are destroying this country.
As an Australian who’s lived in Britain for over fifteen years, I’ve naturally kept an eye on GBP-AUD exchange rates. Here’s the rate on this day in 2007: £1 = A$2.48. In 2011 it was A$1.60. In 2016, after clawing back from the credit crunch: A$2.07. Today it’s back at A$1.63.
Tell me again, o Leavers and media, how the referendum result has had no economic impact. (And I wish everyone would stop saying that Brexit has had no impact. Brexit still hasn’t happened yet. Heaven help us if it does.) Here’s something I wrote in October, which remains (ha) bitterly relevant.
Apparently, Brexit means Brexit:
For Prime Minister May, Britain’s exit
From Europe is certain.
May May end up hurtin’
Our future? I reckon this wrecks it.