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Looks Like it’s Hope

Never have I been happier for my preemptive pessimism to be proven wrong.

Newcastle-under-Lyme was the scene of much drama yesterday when hundreds of newly-registered students were turned away at polling stations; they persisted and eventually got to vote later in the day, and Labour has won the seat by 30 votes.

The big story of this election has been the return of young voters, which is fantastic news. Now all the parties will have to start paying attention to them again. Seems that having your future stolen in an unnecessary referendum has a galvanising effect.

Even though a Tory minority government with DUP support seems the most likely outcome right now, the Tories have been directly responsible for putting the Good Friday agreement and therefore the future of Northern Ireland within the UK at risk, by calling the EU referendum and by doubling down on a hard Brexit. Even if the DUP are natural Tory allies, that must complicate the negotiations. Owen Jones wrote of the DUP in 2015: “The idea of these bigoted throwbacks to several centuries ago holding the balance of power should surely frighten even moderate Tories, let alone the rest of us.”

For anyone feeling confused about Scotland’s swing to the Tories: it was always unlikely that the SNP could hold its 2015 win of 97% of Scottish seats. Under first-past-the-post, the Tories can beat a divided anti-Tory vote, and so they have done in a dozen seats. But they’re still under-represented relative to their vote share in Scotland—and Labour even more so—just as they were in 2015. As disappointing as it is to think that Scotland’s Tory gains could help prop up a Conservative minority government, it isn’t some sort of Scottish betrayal of progressive Britain; the Scottish vote remains 70%+ anti-Tory.

9 June 2017 · Politics


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