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Crushing Thoughts

This war is likely to be long-lasting. But the most important issue has already been decided.

Russian warship, Иди Hаxуй.

The information war.

Putin has overestimated his ability to win a propaganda war.

Debunking a staged “provocation” in the Donbas.

What Russian nationalists think about the invasion.

Analysts overrate the Russian army, underrate Ukraine’s, and misunderstand Russian strategy and goals.

We’re already in World War III. We have been for some time.

 

Much of the following is adapted from my comments to the latest Metafilter thread on the invasion.

 

Parents are wrestling with how to talk to kids about Ukraine, and it’s certainly something we’ve had to do, wondering whether to watch or listen to the news and exacerbate their fears of the worst. Mostly, I’m getting my news online—but so are our kids.

While making dinner yesterday, though, I had a moment to listen to Radio 4 alone, and to some heart-breaking interviews with two Russian women living in the UK who have been unable to convince their parents back home of what’s actually happening in Ukraine. The choices facing ordinary Russians are highlighted in an interview with sociologist Grigory Yudin, who demonstrated against the invasion and ended up in hospital:

Today, it’s common for Russians who are pained by what’s happening to feel self-recrimination and shame; they try to justify themselves or apologize. These are understandable and kind-hearted feelings, but they can’t lead to action. … Russians will get nothing out of this war … all we’ll get is global hatred, a destroyed economy, a crushed society, and possibly a defeated army. … And that is why we must stop this catastrophe, why we have to unite with Ukrainians and Belarusians. Circumstances are such that Ukrainians are resisting in their own way, whereas Belarusians and Russians have to find a different means. One that won’t prevent them from looking themselves in the eye afterwards.

 

It now seems clear that justifications from Putin apologists about the threat posed by NATO expansion towards Russia were little more than that: justifications. Those of us who grew up during the Cold War remember a time when the buffer between East and West was the border running through the middle of Germany and a physical wall surrounding half of Berlin, with border guards staring across it into enemy territory. Putin doesn’t want hundreds of miles distance between Russia and NATO, he wants a situation where he controls his supposed buffer zone and not the people of the countries concerned. It’s anathema to every principle of self-determination that the West claims to hold.

This was no sudden descent into madness on Putin’s part, either. Part one of his long-term ambitions was implemented in Crimea in 2014. Part two was waging information war in 2014–16 to weaken the West, culminating in Trump and Brexit. Putin bided his time while these played out, in the hope that they would destabilise the EU and NATO and improve the odds of a successful full-scale invasion. The pandemic arrived unexpectedly in 2020, but by 2021 the vaccines were looking good, so he felt able to move ahead with part three: he wrote openly about his ambitions and started moving troops into position. He waited for the end of the Winter Olympics to keep China happy. Two days after they finished, he declared the eastern regions of Ukraine independent and stated his intention to invade. Two days after that…

 

Chernihiv is surrounded and its archives have been bombed. To put this into context for those (like me) who don’t know the country personally, Chernihiv is a city of just under 300,000 people, established sometime before 907, with a cathedral that dates to the 11th century.

Kharkiv, meanwhile, is a city of one and a half million, around the size of Turin. Kyiv is around the size of Rome and Athens by metropolitan area, at three and a half million. Kharkiv is young in European terms: it was founded in 1654. Kyiv was founded in 482.

It’s been hard over recent days not to feel as if we’ll wake up to news that a city as ancient as the one I live in has been levelled by Russian bombs. Every day that they haven’t feels like a reprieve.

 

Zelensky’s translator choked up as he addressed the European Parliament. One detail from this worth mentioning is that Kharkiv is home to the most universities of any city in Ukraine.

 

Two recent articles on Volodymyr Zelensky put the funny clips that have been surfacing from his comedic past into context. They helped me clarify why another recent piece saying “enough with the Zelensky thirst” felt slightly off to me. People finding a new “crush” in Zelensky aren’t trivialising the invasion: one can admire him and be concerned for Ukrainians simultaneously. It’s possible to laugh at old clips and marvel that he was a comedian before he became president while also being impressed with his courage and resolve.

That’s because comedy is anything but trivial. Good comedy takes wit and intelligence, and at its heart is about joy. Comedians devote their days to bringing joy to others—to celebrating life. It’s important work, serious work, and recognising that may be one reason Ukrainians voted for him in such numbers in 2019.

Along with learning about Zelensky’s past, I was sobered to learn of the place of Odessa in Ukrainian and former-Soviet culture. Odessa has hosted an annual comedy festival since 1972. Many early Jewish comedians in the US emigrated from Odessa to New York a century ago. As someone who’s lived many years in another comedy festival town, that helps me understand and relate to the city and its country; to care more about them.

Comedy isn’t incidental to the story of Zelensky and Ukraine. It’s another reason to support them. Because crushing that joie de vivre under an autocratic occupation diminishes the world.

2 March 2022 · Events