Madagascar

Forgotten, But Not Gone

[12 Dec 02] Reports in the West on political developments in Madagascar dropped off dramatically once Ratsiraka left the country and effectively ceded the presidency to Ravalomanana. There was some coverage of the subsequent increase in government salaries, a measure designed to combat widespread corruption (Madagascar fared badly in a recent ranking of nations perceived as corrupt). The stubborn rejection of Ravalomanana's legitimacy as Madagascar's president by the African Union also got a bit of press. But neither story was reported widely outside the region, and the same seems to be true of this weekend's parliamentary elections, which have the potential to return the country to political stability at last. Ratsiraka's own party has already signed a communiqué recognising Ravalomanana's presidency.

Amnesty International, meanwhile, has called for an investigation into human rights abuses on both sides of the protracted political stalemate of early 2002, while the UN World Food Programme has appealed for international aid to tackle the shortages and hunger that resulted from the crisis. Unhappily, neither of these calls to action stands much chance of being noticed by the Western public, competing as they are with the threat of war in Iraq and famine in Ethiopia.

Note to self: arrange to face starvation in an out-of-the-way country in a slow news year if possible.

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[14 Aug 02] Big Red's woes are far from over. A flu-like virus has affected thousands of people around the country, starting in Fianarantsoa, and the death toll has quickly passed 400. As if that wasn't bad enough, it's also facing a plague of locusts.

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Bonne Chance, Madagascar

[ 9 Jul 02] Naturally, Madagascar's months-long crisis would reach some kind of conclusion just as I'm away from home and unable to follow the news—though 'conclusion' is an optimistic way of describing the pause before a long period of rebuilding and repair. After using prisoners as human shields and riddling homes around the north with bullets, Ratsiraka's forces surrendered in the face of their leader's desertion for France. Ratsiraka, who lost key international equivocators ('supporters' was hardly an appropriate description) when France and the US swung behind Ravalomanana, has exiled himself before, but this time the chances of a comeback must surely be slim. He leaves behind a country in considerably worse shape than before the elections of last November, thanks to a willingness to have his supporters destroy its infrastructure and push it close to famine rather than pass it into the hands of 'fascists'. Whether a certain millionaire-turned-politician deserves to be compared to Hitler is difficult for outsiders to judge, but past examples of decades-long rulers leaving the stage unwillingly and ungraciously tend to suggest that the comparison is just slightly biased. Given the choice between:

• someone who sells yoghurt and refreshing cold drinks and was by all accounts a successful businessman and mayor, or
• someone who—according to the best available evidence—rigs elections, encourages the wholesale destruction of bridges, roads and power-lines in his own country to prevent a democratic transition of power, stalls international attempts at mediation, blocks supply lines to a city of a million people to starve out his opponents, enlists foreign mercenaries to fight against his fellow citizens, all the while making mysterious trips to France that look suspiciously like preparing for his ultimate and inevitable departure, giving the impression that all these moves are simply buying time for his own retirement plans at the expense of Malagasy lives,

it is, admittedly, difficult for outside observers to know which side to support. But at least it only took our Western governments six or seven months to recognise the potential benefits of acidophilus and bifidus.

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More Setbacks

[19 Jun 02] The possibility of a government of national unity seems to be off:

Ravalomanana ... dashed hopes for reconciliation Tuesday by excluding any key supporters of his arch-foe, former leader Didier Ratsiraka, from a new government. ... "This is clearly no more an inclusive government than the last one," one local political analyst [said].

Meanwhile, Ratsiraka supporter Lieutenant Colonel Ancelin Coutiti has apparently "stepped up his hunt for the new president's men in recent days" on the tourist resort island of Nosy Be, where "the mutilated corpses of six of Ravalomanana's soldiers and two civilians have been found since Saturday."

Even more disturbingly, this may indicate what Ratsiraka has been doing in France:

French "mercenaries" allegedly on their way to embattled Madagascar to fight for former president Didier Ratsiraka were still in Tanzania on Wednesday, airport sources here said. A Falcon 900 carrying 15 French nationals heading to Madagascar landed in Dar es Salaam on Tuesday to refuel.

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[14 Jun 02] An inconclusive end to the latest round of talks on the Madagascar crisis has been followed by dramatic events: Ravalomanana has pulled down all of Ratsiraka's barricades while the latter is in France.

"The barriers have been completely taken down throughout Madagascar," the millionaire businessman said. "I now call for national reconciliation so the country can start working toward national recovery in peace and harmony."

Ratsiraka, meanwhile, denied that he was fleeing the country, saying "I am going to Paris in order to find a solution to the serious crisis in Madagascar." An interesting place to look for it.

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[ 1 Jun 02] First the Madagascar crisis had to compete for international news coverage with the Middle East and Zimbabwe, and now it's up against the Kashmir re-run of the Bay of Pigs; in the past week there's been a noticeable drop in online coverage of events on Big Red. And yet the situation there is becoming increasingly dangerous: exchanges of gunfire between rival forces in Tana last Monday and Mahajanga yesterday resulted in more deaths; soldiers have stormed the ministry of defence demanding more pay; and Ratsiraka has refused to attend a further meeting in Senegal until his prime minister is released from house arrest. Most disturbing of all, Madagascar's poor now face the real possibility of famine.

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[23 May 02] Ravalomanana looks set to carry out threats that he made a week ago to use force to end Madagascar's stand-off:

There was a steady build-up of soldiers in two of Madagascar's provincial towns on Thursday as president Marc Ravalomanana reiterated his intention to take military action if the blockade of the capital, Antananarivo, was not dismantled within four days.... The Tulear airport, which has served as an alternative to the main airport in Antananarivo, has been shut down.

Other recent stories: European Parliament issues resolution on the 'situation'; cyclone death toll rises to 41; an interview with analyst Stephen Ellis; and BBC journalist Alastair Leithead follows the illegal fuel trail.

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[15 May 02] On the east coast, a tropical storm leaves thirteen dead, no power or running water in Toamasina/Tamatave, and problems getting aid through because of Ratsiraka's roadblocks. On the west coast, fights among supporters of the rival presidents leave six dead and add to fears that old ethnic rivalries are intensifying.

Barijoana has sent me further links regarding his analysis of the election recount: the main story, and a summary in table form. He says he "also tried to compare HCC's verdict with the data collected by the most important group of independent poll observers. (Full disclosure: my mother is the president of the 'Consortium des Observateurs', and I was their webmaster)". The Consortium figures give the election to Ravalomanana, but more narrowly than the HCC recount (50.59% compared to the HCC's 51.47%).

Unfortunately, it increasingly appears that the election's potential to legitimise either candidate's claim to the presidency in the eyes of his opponents has been spent.

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[10 May 02] The U.S. is pushing for new talks in Senegal to break the impasse that is strangling Madagascar:

[At] Brickaville ... the blockade has created an unusual demand for transhipment of goods. "The workers earn four to five times more there than normal wage," a local businessman said. "Twelve million Malagasy francs (US$1900) to transport 25000 tons to Antananarivo," offered a young transporter. "It's a racket," said an operator. "And it's all being done with the backing of Ratsiraka."

Here, the country's main commercial highway is reduced to a narrow concrete path. Men totter over it in single file under sacks of cement, crates of tinned food and baskets of chickens. Others wade across the river, pushing barrels of smuggled petrol. Huddled out of the rain, traders sell rice, beer and tea. A militiaman threatens to shoot anyone too inquisitive about the crossing. Brickaville is becoming a border town, and a rough one at that.

Life in the capital is slowly breaking down. "We can't buy petrol, you can hardly find sugar, many people are out of work," said Noro Adrianjafy, beside her shoe stall in the city's red-tiled market place. "We feel ourselves being suffocated."

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[ 6 May 02] Ravalomanana has been sworn in as president of Madagascar for a second time, in a ceremony drawing 100,000 spectators. While there is some measure of international recognition for his presidency this time around, disaffected provincial governors are pushing ahead with plans to break away from central rule. Meanwhile, yet another bridge near Antananarivo has been destroyed by saboteurs—this one, the fifth, on the main road south to Fianarantsoa and beyond.

Malagasy weblogger Barijaona has identified at least one significant data-entry error in the recent recount.

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[ 2 May 02] The governors of five of Madagascar's six provinces are preparing to make an 'important and solemn' declaration of independence in response to the imminent declaration of Marc Ravalomanana as president, while one governor has already declared his province a "sovereign state, independent within the confederation of Madagascar." Saboteurs have blown up another key bridge near the capital. There are claims that the declaration of Ravalomanana's outright victory in the poll recount contravened an unofficial agreement behind the Dakar accord, which was expected to lead to new polls. The Organisation of African Unity has called for a referendum to resolve the dispute.

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[29 Apr 02] Ratsiraka has now returned to Madagascar, but, emboldened by his provincial governors' refusal to recognise any High Constitutional Court election recount, has rejected the court's new verdict that Ravalomanana won the December election outright with 51.46 percent of the vote. Some provinces have threatened secession should Ravalomanana be declared president. Even though any break-up of the country would be unlikely and economically unviable, Madagascar now appears likely to face yet more uncertainty and unrest.

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[22 Apr 02] After weeks of stalemate, events are moving quickly in Madagascar. On the invitation of the President of Senegal, rival presidents Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana flew to Dakar last week for a meeting that resulted in a tentative peace agreement, precipitated in part by increasing violence—most recently the assassination of a general in his hospital bed.

The specifics of the agreement remain unclear, although they include a recount of the December 2001 election results, in line with a high court ruling:

The High Constitutional Court, which gives the official stamp of approval to election results, validated results in January that showed no candidate had won an outright majority. But in a decision delivered on Wednesday, the court's Administrative Chamber said it had reinstated members of the court dismissed by Ratsiraka before the poll, effectively annulling the election results approved by their replacements. The court ruling ordered the re-examination of electoral files and the official proclamation of results.

Ravalomanana has agreed to stop calling himself 'president', but has nevertheless assumed control of a second of Madagascar's six provinces. Ratsiraka, meanwhile, has flown to Paris, his return date unknown. Blockades mounted by his supporters remain in place, despite his agreement to lift them.

Even if the blockades are lifted, the destruction of key bridges will make transportation of goods around the country more difficult than before. Officials speculate that the effects have already been grim: they "may have led to the deaths of 7,500 children and 400 women," one told Radio Madagascar. Fuel shortages in Tana have now been followed by bread rationing. Travellers have been threatened by bandits in the south, and Western governments are advising against travel to the country.

The long-term implications of the crisis are particularly disturbing—not only of its direct effects, but also of its indirect ones. One of Madagascar's major crops, vanilla, suffered badly from cyclones in early 2000 and 2001—in ordinary years it comprises half the world crop—and the current crisis exacerbates the problems faced by the industry. As prices have increased worldwide in response to such disasters, the search for alternative means of producing 'natural' vanillin has intensified. These, in turn, have the potential to badly undermine Madagascar's exports and balance of trade in coming years.

Meanwhile, I was pleased to hear from Barijaona Ramaholimihaso, who in the world of webloggers must be close to unique: a Malagasy blogger posting from Antananarivo. The blog is in French, but Google translation serves up a sort-of English version. As Barijaona said to me,

The situation here is still very difficult, but for the first time in many weeks, there is a thin ray of hope. May be we will have a democracy within a few months.

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[12 Apr 02] Opponents of contested-president Ratsiraka have ransacked the homes of several government officials in Antananarivo, killing one and injuring ten. Elie Rajaonarison, an adviser to opposing leader Ravalomanana, says:

The people are fed up, and they want to act... For now, we are calming people down, but how long can that last? It is not a political crisis any more, we have to look at this in terms of war in Madagascar. The international community needs to see it like that—once it erupts, it will be too late.

Meanwhile, recently-returned visitor Rebecca Weeks has described the travel difficulties exacerbated by the crisis:

Taxis are expensive [in Tana, and there's a] higher than usual military presence ... Any small villages or towns seemed to be pretty much unaffected, apart from shortages in things due to difficulties with transportation. ... Travelling on the road south from Tana was basically impossible, ... bridges have been blown out and you have to carry your bags across [rivers] yourself. ... Internal flights are busy but still going.

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[ 8 Apr 02] While the world is preoccupied with other conflicts, Madagascar continues its slide towards disaster, with self-declared president Ravalomanana declaring that the country is in 'a state of war'. Rival president Ratsiraka's temporary base of Tamatave/Toamasina has become defacto capital for five out of six regional governors. The blockade of the road between Toamasina and Tana, which has seen bridges destroyed that took years to build, has starved the capital of fuel and essential medicines; the World Bank estimates the cost to the already-struggling economy at US$12 million a day.

Ratsiraka recently said of his opponents:

I don't want people to say that Ratsiraka is a deserter, that he is the one who allowed a horde of neo-fascists and nazis, as they are often called, to vassalise our children and children's children.

He and some outside observers have expressed concern about a possible civil war along ethnic lines among Madagascar's eighteen major ethnic groups. Other observers have expressed frustration that Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana are refusing to reach the inevitable compromise before further bloodshed and damage to the economy, rather than after.

To add to Ravalomanana's woes, dozens of convicts have escaped from a Tana prison. Meanwhile, some of his supporters are resorting to naked non-violence to end the stand-off:

Prostitutes loyal to Mr Ravalomanana launched an alternative attack on the barricades, stripping naked outside Toamasina to demand an end to the blockade. They were persuaded to put their clothes back on after bribes from the local governor.

It all leaves me grateful to have seen Madagascar before all of this hit, and dismayed that it's happening at a time when the West is least likely to be concerned with the problems of a little-known land adrift off the coast of Africa. There's still a chance at this point that stronger attention from the outside world could avert the war, famine, and disease that threaten; but the chance of that attention being given could hardly be less.

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Steam Power = People Power

[26 Mar 02] More from Madagascar:

Truckloads of soldiers loyal to incumbent President Didier Ratsiraka descended on the parliamentary complex before dawn. But church bells soon sounded throughout Antananarivo, sending hundreds of opposition supporters into the streets to confront the soldiers. They used rocks, garbage containers and even an old steam engine to block roads leading to the legislature.

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[18 Mar 02] Most of the English-language reporting on Madagascar's constitutional crisis has come from the BBC, which yesterday carried a background piece on Malagasy culture. There's a lot more happening in the French-speaking press (for example at madonline, which does actually carry some English translations), and I'm once again annoyed that my French barely extends beyond asking the price of a hotel room.

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[14 Mar 02] Four dead in Madagascar as armed youths backing Ratsiraka "swarmed through the town of Toamasina and spread terror among the inhabitants". Pro-Ratsiraka youths have also set up barricades to block petrol trucks, drying up supplies to Tana's one million inhabitants.

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[12 Mar 02] Madagascar's army swings behind Ravalomanana as Ratsiraka relocates to the port city of Tamatave:

The continuing constitutional crisis in Madagascar poses a difficult question for the international community. Is the Indian Ocean island nation in the process of a "popular power" democratic revolution, or is a power seeker with wide popular support staging a peaceful but illegal coup?

More context in this interview with a former Malagasy television journalist. The struggle for power is by no means over: most goods bound for Tana and the rest of the country enter through Tamatave, so control of the port gives Ratsiraka considerable leverage. (Sorry if this doesn't mean much to you, but as about the only weblogger in the English-speaking world with the faintest interest in all of this, I'm determined to keep plugging away at it.)

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[28 Feb 02] Two rival presidents split Madagascar; riots in Tana; curfews imposed and broadcasts restricted. Not looking good.

Ravalomanana is the owner of Tiko, which makes dairy produce and bottled drinks. The company is noteworthy for its use of English (and Malagasy, of course) in advertising; an English-language billboard in Tana is an odd sight, because most non-Malagasy signs are in French. This sort of avoidance of French is one form of anti-colonial sentiment and Malagasy patriotism, which I imagine would go down well with many urban Malagasy (who deal with the French and the colonial legacy more often than people out in the countryside)—hence the predominance of support for Ravalomanana in Tana.

Another clue to Ravalomanana's stance is that the Ratsiraka government shut down his factories just before the election, citing an unpaid tax bill. Under those circumstances Ravalomanana clearly has little to lose in making an all-for-nothing bid for the presidency, and five thousand out-of-work Tiko employees are no doubt helping to boost the crowds at his rallies, too.

The name Ravalomanana, by the way, would be pronounced something like 'Rava-loo-ma-nan'. And Tiko prune yoghurt is (or was) delicious.

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[22 Feb 02] Following up Monday's post: Madagascar's opposition leader, mayor of the capital city and a self-made dairy millionaire, has declared himself President in front of thousands of supporters.

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[18 Feb 02] Madagascar, a country close to my heart, is in the grip of a general strike that has grounded all flights in and out of the country. More at Madagascar News.

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